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指數連續回落,全球經濟復蘇趨勢放緩——2021年7月份CFLP-GPMI分析

wenzhanglaiyuan: xuanchuanju  fabushijian: 2021-08-10

juzhongguowuliuyucaigoulianhehuifabu,2021nian7yuefenquanqiuzhizaoyepmiwei56.3%,jiaoshangyuehuiluo0.5gebaifendian,lianxu2geyuehuanbihuiluo。fenquyukan,shouyiqingheguoneisaoluanshuangzhongyingxiang,nanfeizhizaoyepmidafuhuiluo,daozhifeizhouzhizaoyepmijiaoshangyuejiangfumingxian。ouzhou、meizhouzhizaoyepmijunlianxu2geyuexiaofuhuiluo。yazhouzhizaoyepmiyushangyuechiping。

zonghezhishubianhua,quanqiuzhizaoyepmibaochizai56%yishang,quanqiujingjirengbaochifusuqushi,danzhishulianxu2geyuehuiluo,biaomingquanqiujingjifusuyouchixufanghuandeshitou。jiyuduidangqianjingjifusuxingshidepanduan,imfzaizuixinde《shijiejingjizhanwang》zhongyucequanqiujingjizengsuwei6%,yu4yuefendeyucejibenyizhi。dangenjushijieyiqingdezoushi,duibutongdiqudezengsuyucezuochudiaozheng,diaogaolefadajingjitidezengsuyuce,diaodiledangqianyiqingyingxiangjiaoweiyanzhongdexinxingjingjitidezengsu。

bianyixinguanbingdudechuanboshidequanqiujingjifusuzhilubiandeyuelaiyuefuza。quanqiujingjifusuqushisuimeiyoumingxiangaibian,danyiqingdailaidebuquedingyingxiangyijichangqikuansongzhengcedailaidefumianyingxiangsuishidoukenengyingxiangjingjifusujincheng。geguoyimiaojiezhongdechengdu、fangyizhengcedeliduhefuchizhengcedexiaoguozuoyoulegeguojingjifusuchengdu。yujixiabannianjingjijiangbaochifusuqushi,danzengsukenengfanghuan。

mianduiyiqinggeijingjichixudailaidebuquedingxing,hezuokangyihehezuogongyingshibaochishijiejingjiwendingfusudezhongyaobaozhang,yeyijingchengweiguojishehuiyuelaiyueguangfandegongshi。eluosi、baxi、moxige、jiekedengyixieguojiatongguojiaxilaihuajieriqushengwendetongzhangyali,danmeiguo、ribenheouzhoudeyixiefadaguojiarengbaochiyuanyoudekuansongzhengce,zheyiweizhuquanqiuhuobizhengcezhengtikuansongtaishimeiyougenbengaibian,quanqiutongzhangyalijiangjixucunzai。

fenquyulaikan,chengxianruxiatedian:

非洲制造業增速明顯放緩,PMI大幅回落

2021nian7yuefen,feizhouzhizaoyepmiwei47.5%,jiaoshangyuedafuxiajiang4.1gebaifendian,feizhouzhizaoyezengsujiaoshangyuemingxianfanghuan,zhishujiangzhi50%yixiadejiaodishuiping。nanfeizhizaoyepmichuxianmingxianhuiluo,shifeizhouzhizaopmidafuhuiluodezhuyin。yinnanfeiqianzongtongbeiburuyu,guoneifashenglesaoluan,yanzhongpohuailenanfeidejingjizhixu。jingjitingzhijiazhiyiqingdeyanzhongyingxiang,shidenanfeizhizaoyezengsudafufanghuan。gaoqidezhaiwuyeshidenanfeizhengfucaizhengxianrukunjing,yingduijingjixiaxingyalifali。jupuhuayongdaofenxi,cicisaoluanjiangshijinniannanfeijingjizengsuxiajiang0.4gebaifendian。

nanfeidekunjingshuomingfeizhouguojiazhengjudewendingyufourengshijuedingfeizhoujingjinengfouwendingfusudezhongyaoyinsu。yiqingdebuduanehuayeduifeizhoujingjifusuzaochengleyidingdeyali。yimiaojiezhongbilipiandishidefeizhouyiqingfangkongxiaoguonanyimingxiantisheng。chixudeyiqingduifeizhouguojiadetouzihejingjizengchangdailaibuliyingxiang。

亞洲制造業增速趨穩,PMI與上月持平

2021nian7yuefen,yazhouzhizaoyepmiwei51.2%,yushangyuechiping,jieshulianxu2geyuehuanbixiajiangzoushi。congzhuyaoguojiakan,yinduzhizaoyeyoujiaoweimingxiandehuifu,yinduzhizaoyepmihuishengzhi55%yishang;malaixiyaheyuenanzhizaoyepmisuiyouxiaofuhuisheng,danzhishurengzai50%yixia;yinnihemiandiandezhizaoyepmichuxianmingxianhuiluo;benyue,shouqiangjiangyuhetaifengyingxiang,zhongguozhizaoyezengsuyousuofanghuan,zhizaoyepmijiaoshangyuexiajiang0.5gebaifendianzhi50.4%,danjingjizhengtipingwenxianghaoyunxingjichumeiyoufashenggaibian。

zongheshujubianhua,yazhouzhizaoyejishangyuehuiluohou,benyuebaochiwending,zhengtichengxianhuanzhongquwenzoushi。dancongbutongdiqukan,dongyayixieguojiajingjihuifujiaoweiwending,dongnanyaguojiashouyiqingyingxiangjiaoweiyanzhong,zhizaoyezengchangtaishiyousuofanfu。jianyushangshudiquzoushifenhua,yazhoukaifayinxingxiaofushangdiaoledongyadiqujingjizengchangyuqi,congyuanlaide7.4%diaozhi7.5%;bingjiangdongnanyadiqu2021niandezengchangyuqicong4.4%xiadiaozhi4.0%。yaxingtongshirenwei,yiqingyingxiangjiaodadiqujingjizengsudefanghuanjiangdixiaoqitajingjidiqudefusuzengchangshitou,yincijiangjiangqi40yugehuiyuandejingjizengchanglvzhanwangyou7.3%xiadiaozhi7.2%。

美洲制造業增繼續放緩,PMI連續小幅回落

2021nian7yuefen,meizhouzhizaoyepmijiaoshangyuehuiluo0.8gebaifendianzhi58.6%,lianxu2geyuexiaofuhuiluo,xianshimeizhouzhizaoyezengsuyanxushangyuefanghuanzoushi,danfusuqushirengjiaoweiwending。zhuyaoguojiazhong,meiguohejianadazhizaoyepmijunchengxianlianxuxiaofuhuiluo,baxihemoxigezhizaoyepmijiaoshangyueyoubutongchengdushangsheng。

meiguozhizaoyezengsuchixufanghuandaidongmeizhouzhizaoyezengsufanghuan。ismbaogaoxianshi,meiguozhizaoyepmijiaoshangyuexiajiang1.1gebaifendianzhi59.5%。fenxiangzhishuxianshi,meiguozhizaoyegongxuzengsujiaoshangyuejunyoubutongchengdufanghuan。meiguoyiqingdefanfuduizhizaoyedeyingxiangyirancunzai。weilewendingjingjifusu,meiguoconghuobizhengcehecaizhengzhengceshangyiranbaochijiaoqiangdezhichilidu。conghuobizhengcekan,meiguojixubaochikuansongdehuobizhengce。meilianchuzhuxirenwei,kuansongdehuobizhengceduimeiguojingjirengcunzaijijiyingxiang。congcaizhengzhengcekan,yifangmiantongguojiadajijiantouzilidulaitishengmeiguoxuqiu,lingyifangmian,jiadaduimeiguodishoururenqundezhichi。danmeiguodezhaiwufengxianzhengzaijiada,meiguozhengfuzhengzaishitutongguotigaozhaiwushangxianhuajieweiyuefengxian。tongshi,chixudetongzhangyaliyeweimeiguojingjidechixufusudailaiyinhuan。

歐洲制造業增速小幅放緩,PMI小幅回落

2021nian7yuefen,ouzhouzhizaoyepmijiaoshangyuexiajiang0.7gebaifendianzhi60.7%,lianxu2geyuexiaofuhuiluo。congzhuyaoguojiakan,deguozhizaoyepmijiaoshangyuexiaofushangsheng;yingguo、faguo、yidalidengguozhizaoyepmijiaoshangyuejunyoubutongchengduhuiluo。

zonghezhishubianhua,ouzhouzhizaoyezhengtibaochijiaokuaifusuqushi,danzengsulianxu2geyueyousuofanghuan。ouzhouyixieguojiayiqingzaicifanfuyijibufendiqudehonglaozaihaiyanhuanleouzhoujingjifusujincheng。weilejixugonggujingjifusuchengguo。ouzhouyangxingxuanbuweichizhudaolilvhegouzhaijihuabubian。conghuobizhengcekan,ouzhouyangxingxiugaililvqianzhanzhiyin,jianglilvweichizaididianzhidaotongzhangshuipingchixudadaoxinshedingde2%demubiao,yiciweijingjifusuyingdegengduodeshijian。

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