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第一財經: 兩會時間開啟,這些重點議題值得關注

wenzhanglaiyuan: diyicaijing  fabushijian: 2021-03-02

juxinhuashe3yue1ribaodao,zhongguorenminzhengzhixieshanghuiyidishisanjiequanguoweiyuanhuichangwuweiyuanhuidishiwucihuiyijueding: zhongguorenminzhengzhixieshanghuiyidishisanjiequanguoweiyuanhuidisicihuiyiyu2021nian3yue4rizaibeijingzhaokai。dangritongbugongbulequanguozhengxiehuiyidezhuyaoyicheng,baokuotaolunguominjingjiheshehuifazhandishisigewunianguihuahe2035nianyuanjingmubiaogangyaocaoan。

ciqianguanfangbaodaoxianshi,shisanjiequanguorendasicihuiyijiangyu3yue5rizaijingzhaokai。

2021nianshi“shisiwu”kaijuzhinian。2yue26rizhaokaidezhonggongzhongyangzhengzhijuhuiyizhichu,dangqianxinguanfeiyanyiqingrengzaiquanqiumanyan,guojixingshizhongbuwendingbuquedingyinsuzengduo,woguojingjihuifujichushangbulaogu,jingjishehuifazhanrengranmianlinbushaokunnanhetiaozhan。

huiyibiaoshi,zuohaojinnianzhengfugongzuo,yaozhashizuohao“liuwen”gongzuo、quanmianluoshi“liubao”renwu,kexuejingzhunshishihongguanzhengce,nulibaochijingjiyunxingzaiheliqujian,jianchikuodaneixuzhanlve,qianghuakejizhanlvezhicheng,kuodagaoshuipingduiwaikaifang,baochishehuihexiewending,quebao“shisiwu”kaihaojuqihaobu。

zaigangguoqude2020nian,mianduixinguanyiqingdejidabuquedingxing,zheyiniandezhengfugongzuobaogaomingquetichubuzaiyushegdpmubiao,querdaizhideshiyijiuyedengweidaibiaodeminshengzhibiao。muqian,yiqingduijingjizengchanghehongguanzhengcederaodongyizaizhubuxiaotui,danyiqingchongjidaozhidegeleiyanshengfengxianrengburonghushi,2021nianzhongguogdpzengchangmubiaohuanyaobuyaoshe、zenyangshe,caizhengzhengce、huobizhengcezouxiangruhe,chengweilianghuiqiandereyihuati。

erqie,meinianlianghuiqijian,shebao、yiliao、jiuye、yanglaodengminshengwentidoubeishoushehuiguanzhu。jingguoxinguanyiqingdekaoyanzhihou,woguominshengzhidudebuzuheduanbanjidaizaixiayibugaigezhongjiayimibu。

GDP增速目標還要不要設?

jieshoudiyicaijingcaifangdeduoweiyeneizhuanjiajunrenwei,2021nianjingjizengsujishuxiaoyingmingxian,dagailvbushezhijutigdpzengsumubiao。

zhongxinzhengquanyanjiusuofusuochangmingmingrenwei,shouyiqingyingxiangdaozhidegdpzengsu“dakeng”jiangdui2021niandejingjizengchangchanshengdushu“xianjing”,yuji2021nianshijigdpzengsujiangzhishaochaoguo8%。ruruoquanguolianghuihezhengfugongzuobaogaoshezhi6%yishangdejingjizengsumubiao,xiandeduociyijuqiebingbushifenfuheshijiqingkuang;erruoshezhi8%yishangdejingjizengsumubiaoyouhuidaozhi2022nianmianlindafuxiadiaojingjizengsumubiaodejingkuang,huiyinfashehuiminzhongheshichangbubiyaodedanyou。yineryuji2021nianquanguolianghuidagailvbushezhijutigdpzengsumubiao,yi“nulibaochijingjiyunxingzaiheliqujian”weizongtimubiaodebiaoshu。bupaichuzai“shisiwu”zhanwangneirongyinxinggeichujingjizengsuruanmubiaodekenengxing。

yiweiyeneiquanweizhuanjiaciqiancengbiaoshi,2020nianyouyuquanqiuyiqinghejingmaoxingshibuquedingxinghenda,wufaquedingquannianjingjizengsujutimubiao,yuce2021nianyebuhuidingjutimubiao,erruguodingyigequjianmubiaozeyiyibuda。

lingwai,mingminghuanbiaoshi,jinjiniandezhengfugongzuobaogaozhong,jibianchuxianjutizengchangmubiaoshuzi,wangwangyebansui“zuoyou”“qujian”denggengjudanxingdelinghuobiaoshu,zheshechuguanfangzhengdanhuaduijingjizengsumubiaodeguoduqiangdiao。

zaiminshengjiuyefangmian,youyuhulianwangjingjicuishengchudaliangxinxingjiuyegangweirudianshang、kuaidideng,zhexie “xinjiuyexingtai”laodongzhezaifalvheshehuibaozhangfangmianrengcunzaizhuduowenti。

minjianzhongyang《guanyuwanshan“xinjiuyexingtai”laodongzhefalvheshehuibaozhangzhidudetian》tichu,xianzaixinyetailaodongzhecunzairulaodongzhedelaodongguanxibumingque、laodongzhedelaodongquanyibaozhangqueshi、yuxinjiuyexingtaixiangguandelaodongjianguanboruowenti,jianyizhiding《xinyetailaodongyonggongguanlitiaoligulipingtaiyulaodongzheqiandinglaodonghetong,zhengfutigongyidingshebaobutiedeng。

quanguogongshanglianzetichu,zhongxinjiedingguyongguanxi。mingquezhengfuhepingtai、laodongzhe、shiyongzhezaixinjiuyexingtaizhongquanliyiwu,shigefangzequanliqingxi。

zaishehuibaozhangfangmian,jinnianyanglaobaoxianzhidudegaigejiangyouyixiliedongzuo。qinghuadaxuejiuyeyushehuibaozhangyanjiuzhongxinzhurenyangyansuirenwei,quanguotongchouhetuixiuzhidugaigeshijinnianyinggaituijindeliangxiangzhongyaogaige,yejiangshijinnianlianghuiqijiandelianggeredian。

貨幣政策穩健取向是否會變?

congjinjinianzhengfugongzuobaogaokan,neirongjunqiangdiaolewenjiandehuobizhengce,baochizhanlvedingli。tanji2021niandehuobizhengce,duoweiyeneizhuanjiayuji,jinnianwenjiandehuobizhengcejianggengjiatuchulinghuojingzhun、helishidu,qiangdiaowenzidangtou、bujizhuanwan,baochihaozhengchanghuobizhengcekongjiandekechixuxing。

shijishang,huobizhengce“bujizhuanwan”jidiaozaoyimingxi。jinqi,zhongguorenminyinxingxingchangyigangmingquebiaoshi,2021nianhuobizhengceyao“wen”zidangtou,baochihaozhengchanghuobizhengcekongjiandekechixuxing;zhongguorenminyinxinghuobizhengceweiyuanhui2020niansijidulihuitijishi“baochihuobizhengcedelianxuxing、wendingxing、kechixuxing,bawohaozhengceshiduxiao,baochiduijingjihuifudebiyaozhichilidu”。

qianshuzhengzhijuhuiyiqiangdiao,shixian2021nianjingjishehuifazhanmubiaorenwu,yaogenghaotongchouyiqingfangkonghejingjishehuifazhan,baochihongguanzhengcelianxuxing、wendingxing、kechixuxing。jijidecaizhengzhengceyaotizhizengxiao、gengkechixu。wenjiandehuobizhengceyaolinghuojingzhun、helishidu。gengshibeishichangkanzuozailianghuiqiandui2021nianhongguanzhengcededingdiao。

mingmingyuji,2021nianhuobizhengcejiangbaochiwenjianzhongxingdezhuquxiangbubian,zaicijichushanggenjujingjixingshibianhualinghuodiaozheng。

zhongguominshengyinxingshouxiyanjiuyuanwenbinduidiyicaijingbiaoshi,quniandizhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyiyidiandinglejidiao,wenjiandehuobizhengce,gengqiangdiaojingzhunlinghuo、helishidu,zheyijidiaozaizhengfugongzuobaogaozhonghuanhuijinyibutixian。wuluncongjingjizengsu、tongzhangshuiping、jiuyezhuangkuanglaikan,huobizhengcezongtihuanshihuibaochiyigewenjianjidiao,zhongdianhuanshiyaojiadajiegouxingdezhichilidu。

“zhongxiaoweiqiyehuanmianlinzhujingyingkunnan,congxindaizhengcekan,huanhuijinyibuyanxuduizhizaoye、xiaoweiqiye、chuangxin、lvsedengguanjianlingyuheboruohuanjiedezhichilidu,zhichijingjigaozhiliangfazhan。”wenbincheng。

3yue1ri,zaizhongguocaifuguanli50renluntanshang,yuanrenminyinxingcanshi、diaotongsisichangshengsongchengrenwei,woguodangqianjingjimianlindezhuyaorenwushihuifuhewendingjingjizengchangyijifangfanxitongxingjinrongfengxian,zhishaozai2021nianshangbannianzhiqian,doubuyishoujinhuobizhengce: yishixiangduiyufadaguojia,woguohuobizhengcezai2020nianjijiyingduiyiqingdeguochengzhongbingweigaodashuimanguan;ershiwoguojingjihuifujichushangbulaogu,shoujinhuobizhengcebuliyuwenzengchanghefangfengxian;sanshicongdangqiandewujiahezichanjiageshuipingdengjingjizhibiaolaikan,woguojingjihuanyuanweidadaoshoujinhuobizhengcedetiaojian。

財政政策亮點多

tongshi,jijicaizhengzhengcebeishoushichangguanzhu,zhebaokuolesiwushiwanyiyuandecaizhengzijinzenmehua。

duiyuqiyelaishuo,jinnianshifouhuannengxiangshoujianshuijiangfeiyouhuizhengce?daanshikendingde。

caizhengbubuchangliukunjinnianjieshoumeiticaifangshibiaoshi,zonghekaolvcaizhengchengshounengliheshishizhuqishukunzhengcexuyao,jinnianbaochiyidingdejianshuijiangfeilidu,jixushishizhiduxingjianshuijiangfeizhengce,bangfuqiye,zai“songyicheng”。

“shisanwu”qijianxinzengjianshuijiangfeileijida7.6wanyiyuanzuoyou,youqishiqunianweiyingduiyiqing,woguotuichule2.5wanyiyuanlidukongqiandejianshuijiangfeizhengce,jianqingleqiyefudan,bangzhuqiyeduguonanguan,jifaleshichanghuoli。

zhongguozhengfadaxueshizhengwenjiaoshouduidiyicaijingfenxi,congcaizhengkechixuxinghedangqianjingjixingshilaikan,jinnianjianshuijiangfeiguimobuhuixiangqunianneimeda,dangujiyehuichaoguo1wanyiyuan。

ciqianyixiezhiduxingjianshuijiangfeijucuojiangzaijinnianchixufali,zhebaokuociqianzengzhishuishuilvxiadiao、geshuijianshuiheshebaojiangfeidengjucuo。erqunianyiqingqijianchutaideyixiejieduanxingjianshuijiangfeijucuoyeyouwangzaijinnianyanxu。

duofanglejiedao,quniandidaoqidexiaoguimonashuirenjianmianzhengshouzengzhishuizhengcehejiaotong、shenghuofuwu、dianyingdengkunnanxingyemianzhengzengzhishuiyouhuizhengcejixuzhixing,danzhixingqixianshangweiqueding。zheyouwangzaizheciquanguolianghuishangmingque。

duoweicaishuizhuanjiabiaoshi,xiayibuwoguohuanhuijieheshuizhigaigelaijinyibutuijinzhiduxingjianshuijiangfei。biruzengzhishuishuilvsandangjianbingweiliangdang,geshuijinyibuwanshanzhuanxiangfujiakouchuxiangmudeng,shebaofeilvrengyouyidingxiadiaokongjian,qiyesuodeshuishuilvkeyishidangxiadiao。

chulejianshuijiangfeiwai,weilewentouziwenjingji,jijicaizhengzhengcerenghuibaochiyidingdezhichulidu,difangzhengfurengbaochiyidingdejuzhaiguimo,dankaolvdaocaizhengkechixuxing,zhaiwuzengsujiangfanghuan。

erjinniancaizhengzhichudezhongdian,yiranshiminshenglingyu。

“caizhengshouzhiyalizaida,yeyaojianjuebaozhanghaominshengzhichu。”liukunshuo,2021nian,caizhengbujiangjixujianchijinlierwei、lianglierxing,doulaodoushijibenminshengdixian,nulirangrenminqunzhongdehuodeganchengsegengzu、xingfugangengkechixu、anquangangengyoubaozhang。

weilejishizuejiangminshengbuzhudengzijinbofugeilaobaixing,qunianshishuidecaizhengzijinzhidajizhijiangzaijinnianjinyibuwanshan,zijinfanweikuoda,jianguangengjiayange。

jinnianzhongyangcaizhengzhidazijinfanwei,hangailejibenyanglaojinzhuanyizhifu、xianjijibencailibaozhangjizhijiangbuzijindeng28xiangzhongyangduidifangzhuanyizhifuzijin。ruguoanzhao2020nianzhongyangduidifangzhuanyizhifuyusuanshujugusuan,zhidazijinguimoyue2.7wanyiyuan。

shizhengwenbiaoshi,muqianchulezhongyangcaizhengzhidazijinwai,difangxiangyingdezhuanyizhifuzijinyeanyaoqiuxuyaonaruzhidazijinfanwei,yincibaoshougujijinniangejicaizhengzhidazijinguimochaoguo3wanyiyuan。lingwaihuanyouxiangdangyibizijinshicanzhaozhidaguanli。zhidazijinzhuyaoshiyongyushixianjiceng,muqianzheyiguimofuhecaizhengzijinshijishiyongqingkuangheshiyingdangqiancaizhengtizhi,keyitigaozijinshiyongxiaolv,zhichijiceng“sanbao”。

lingwaiweilefangfengxian,difangzhengfuzhaiwujianguanyejianggengjiayange,youqishizhuashihuajiedifangzhengfuyinxingzhaiwufengxian。

shuli28geshengfen2020nianyusuanzhixingqingkuanghe2021nianyusuanbaogaofaxian,juedaduoshudifangqiangdiaolejinnianjianjueezhiyinxingzhaiwuzengliang,jiaqiangjianguan、qianghuawenze,jijiwentuohuajiecunliangyinxingzhaiwu。bufendifangminglingbudegaoxujiahuazhai。

liukunbiaoshi,geidifangzhengfuzhaiwudaishang“jinguzhou”,jingjishehuifazhanjiuduoyidao“anquanfa”。caizhengbumenjiangjijicaiqu“kaiqianmen”he“duhoumen”bingxing、baozhangheguifanbingjudengcuoshi,jinyibuwanshanguanli、qianghuajianguan,tuijindifangzhengfuzhaiwu“yangguanghua”,qieshibazhaiwufengxianguanjinlongzili。

【zerenbianji: zhaoyihan】

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